NATO’S WITHDRAWAL FROM AFGHANISTAN AND THE REGIONAL SECURITY DYNAMICS

Abstract

Predicting what is going to happen in Afghanistan is a hazardous and perilous business primarily because the situation in Afghanistan is complex not only in terms of the number of actors involved within Afghanistan, but also because the conflict in Afghanistan is deeply embedded in regional dynamics. Also there is lack of genuine information about what is going on in Afghanistan. Some of the available information is reliable, some is not reliable. And then of course we have this very interesting phenomenon of plausible deniability, that is pursuit of policies by covert means. It could be any state not necessarily Afghanistan’s immediate neighbours. In international politics, countries pursue a de jure policy and a de facto policy so one is little bit confused whether to focus on the actual policies or to go by the rhetoric. In this regard we should remember that the situation in Afghanistan is in a state of flux. So we are trying to make some sense of an evolving situation and that itself is a hazardous undertaking. But two things are very clear amidst all this fluidity.