Analysis of Geopolitical Dilemmas: A Case Study of Pakistan and Poland

The study provides an in-depth examination of the geostrategic challenges that Poland and Pakistan face presently. On the one hand, due to its position between two strategically relevant, such as Germany and Russia, and the absence of any actual natural barriers to keep hegemons at bay, Poland has had one of the most turbulent histories. It was remained at the mercy of its larger neighbours. On the other hand, due to its location, natural riches, and geopolitical position, Pakistan is now at a crossroads of promises and challenges, geopolitical ambitions of the powerful nations and the burgeoning commercial possibilities in Asia. The internal and external states of the region are leaning more towards their competing strategic options rather than attaining their geopolitical aims through collaboration. These strategic calculations are generating disturbance on the strategic front for the whole region in general, and for Pakistan in particular. The article is a comprehensive analysis of the geostrategic challenges that the two countries are now facing and will deal on aspect of their shared existence.


Introduction
Geography has always played a vital role in the policy making process of any country. The strategic interests, foreign policy, and security challenges of any Poland is located in the heart of Europe, sharing borders with Germany to the west, the Czech Republic and Slovakia to the south, Ukraine and Belarus to the east, and the Baltic Sea, Lithuania, and Russia's Kaliningrad Oblast to the north. With a landmass of 312,696 square kilometres, the country ranks as the sixth largest member state in the European Union. The topography of the nation is varied, encompassing mountainous regions in the southern and central areas, such as the Tatra Mountains and the Sudetes, in addition to undulating plains in the northern and western regions. 1 Warsaw, situated in the east-central region of Poland, is the country's capital and most populous city. It is positioned along the banks of the Vistula River. Prominent urban centres include Kraków, Łódź, Wrocław, Poznań, Gdańsk, and Szczecin. With a populace of around 38 million individuals, Poland ranks as the sixth most densely populated nation in the European Union. 2 Poland had been a sovereign state from the eighth century until the nineteenth century. Poland, however, disappeared from European maps in 1795. Prussia, Russia, and Austria-Hungary, three powerful surrounding states, partitioned it and it remained territorially divided until the beginning of the 20 th century. If we see in retrospect, there were times in Polish history when defeat was not heroic. Before the Russian Empire, the Hapsburgs' organisation in southeast Europe, and Prussia's ascent to prominence, the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth was one of Europe's most powerful alliances. This alliance formed in the 17th century included all of the territories between the Baltic and roughly the Black Sea from what is now western Ukraine to the heart of Germany. This period of Polish history is often regarded as the "golden age". The Poles are aware of their historical dominance in North Europe but they are certain that it will never be repeated.
As a sovereign state by 1795, it had already been partitioned among the new great powers of Prussia, Russia, and Austria. As a result of the Treaty of Versailles, it was re-established in 1919, long after it had lost its independence. They practiced democracy only for a brief period of time until it proved to be uncontrollable and they reverted to tyranny. Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union retook and partitioned Poland at the outset of World War II in 1939. Due to its geographical location, Poland became the epicentre of European conflict for the following six years. While it became an independent nation in 1945, the Soviet Union dominated its politics until the 1980s. More than five million Poles lost their lives and countless more were maimed as a result of the crimes committed during World War II, among them approximately three million Jews. 3

Dilemma of hostile neighbours: Pakistan
There is a widespread consensus that India has aspirations on a regional scale to control the peripheries. The US is in the process of progressively losing its leadership position as it continues to pursue its "America First" policy. This involves major trade war with China. As a consequence of these shifts, we can speculate about the steps India may take to accommodate itself to the pattern which is emerging all over the globe. This indicates India's foreign policy aspirations in the last few years through the lens of hegemony and a y-centred case study. 4 These aspirations include stalemating SAARC and refusing to accept the Western narrative in the conflict in Ukraine. Other examples include pursuing a permanent place in the United Nations Security Council. The US and the existing framework of laws and practices in the Indian Ocean and Southeast Asia are neither wholly challenged by India's foreign policy nor is it wholly supported by it. The strength of relations between India and Pakistan, as well as the level of competition between the US and China, will both have an effect on how well Indian businesses do in other parts of the world. 5 On the other hand, the relationship between China and Pakistan is time tested. A landmark agreement for the strategic and long-term development of CPEC, which is the lifeline of the BRI, was signed in 2013 by the two parties as part of a memorandum. Since India claims Kashmiri territory under Pakistani administration to be an "inseparable part" of Indian territory, it has expressed resistance to the idea. The relationship between India and Pakistan has not seen any significant improvement as a direct result of the Ukraine, Poland is more than just cautious. Poland is on edge as a result of recent attacks on two fronts: first, by refugees rushing into the country, and second, by Ukrainian separatists at a military site close to the Polish-Ukrainian border. These recent attacks have put Poland in a precarious position. Concerns have also been expressed with regard to the level of security. Russia launched an attack on a Ukrainian military base located in Yavoriv, which is just 16 kilometres (10 miles) away from the Polish border. Poland has been warning the West for a significant number of years that Russia intends to alter the power dynamic in Europe. When the Polish government voiced its worries, they were called "alarmists" and faced criticism for it. Nevertheless, it is not the case anymore. Poland, which was previously neglected by some members of NATO due to its image as a postcommunist "Russophobe", has now emerged as a crucial member of the alliance's eastern flank in recent years. This shift in Poland's status as a member of the alliance's eastern flank has occurred in recent years. It is the most reliable connection in the network that currently connects Western countries with Ukraine in its current state. 7

Refugees Crisis Pakistan
After the withdrawal of the US forces from Afghanistan in August 2021, the country has spiralled downward into one of the most severe humanitarian crises in the history of South Asia. 186,680 Afghans forced to flee their country in search of safety in the neighbouring countries. Pakistan has always been the destination of choice for Afghans fleeing persecution and economic suffering. According to estimates provided by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), Pakistan has received 117,550 Afghan refugees since 2020. This is about 62% of the total refugee population that has fled Afghanistan. A contrasting number comes from Pakistani authorities, who believe that 250,000 Afghans have entered Pakistan since the evacuation. At this time, Pakistan is already home to around 1.3 million Afghan refugees who have been officially recognised, in addition to an additional 500,000 migrants who are not registered. 8 It is particularly challenging for Pakistan to cope with the present refugee crisis since the country does not have local refugee legislation and has migration policy frameworks that are not well stated. The border between Afghanistan and Pakistan is still utilised as a route for business and for daily travel of illegal migrants, rendering it susceptible to the entry of transnational terrorists despite recent fortification along the border. Without reform in the law, refugees and irregular migrants would be regarded the same, which will create problems in the areas of both security and humanitarian aid. It is important for Pakistan to devise a cohesive plan for dealing with Afghan refugees that is in line with both international obligations and the institutions of local administration. 9 Although Pakistan has traditionally given Afghan migrants shelter on prima facie, humanitarian basis, the country's wider response to refugees has mostly been based on its border security and the goals it has set for its foreign policy. Despite cooperative action taken by the United States and Pakistan and subsequent collaboration with the UNHCR and USAID, Pakistan does not have any legislation at the national level regarding the administration of Afghan refugees that is in line with the requirements of international law and local government. 10

Poland
The war in Ukraine is a major cause of population movement and it will increase in the future of the situation persist. about 7.3 million people who meet the criteria for the status of refugee among the 28 countries that make up the European Union. 11 A provisional status has been given to around four million refugees. Through its borders with Ukraine and Belarus, Poland has taken in the largest number of refugees from that nation than any other country in the world. However, there are fewer refugees still residing in Poland, with the most recent official government estimates putting the total number at 1.4 million. In Hungary, the discrepancy between the official and unofficial migration counts is even higher. According to the local border guards, while over 1.3 million Ukrainians have entered Hungarian territory since February, only 30,000 of them have been granted temporary protection. This is despite the fact that over 1.3 million Ukrainians have entered Hungarian territory. Some organisations that provide humanitarian assistance are under the impression that the government of Hungary is exaggerating the number of migrants who are entering the country in order to get further financial support from the European Union. 12

Regional scenario
The Doha pact has not brought about a condition of peace and stability in Afghanistan The political, social, ethnic, and religious fault lines in Afghanistan are expected to widen as a result of the departure of the U.S. and NATO troops and the establishment of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. This has the potential to spark a civil war and cause widespread turmoil not seen since the 1990s. The non-traditional security issues currently present in the region, such as religious fundamentalism and transnational terrorism, the drug trade, and the refugee crisis, would be exacerbated by this to an unprecedented degree. Academics are of the opinion that it is in the public interest to address the innovative security concerns that are now facing both the region and the globe. The subject of communal action, that is, the shared development of a good or cooperative action to combat the issue is examined via the lens of handling non-traditional security problems including terrorism, drug trafficking, and mass migration/refugee inflow. When people work together to solve a problem or create a beneficial outcome, they are engaging in collective action. It demonstrates how different threat assessments, conflicting interests, and geopolitical rivalries may make it difficult to coordinate actions and share information. There is a possibility that problems with leadership may emerge, which will hinder the organization's or institution's capacity to successfully react to challenges. If coordinated efforts are not made, the non-traditional security issues arising in Afghanistan would be very challenging to address. 14

Poland
Last year in 2022, satellite photographs showed Russia's largest army buildup along its border with Belarus since the Cold War. The US, Russia, and many countries from Europe, including France and Germany, did not come to an agreement throughout the course of their discussions. 15  billions of dollars. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was accompanied by a wave of distributed denial-of-service attacks on government and ally websites in the country. These attacks were carried out by cybercriminals. 19 Security concerns Talking about the threats that Pakistan faces from the outside world, Pakistan's long-time adversary India is often brought up. However, Pakistan's location between Afghanistan and India merits further attention. Pakistan's perceptions of its own security have been significantly impacted, in a substantial way, by its relationships with India and Afghanistan. There are three big dangers that Pakistan faces: the first is India, the second is Afghanistan, and the third is the danger that arises from a changing internal dynamic. However, the events of September 11 have further complicated the situation, and intermittent assaults as well as a growing militant presence within across the border pose increasing security challenges to Pakistan's national integrity. These dangers come not just from the outside in, in the shape of the military and ideological objectives of potential rivals, but also from the inside out, in the form of worries over the nation's internal security. 20 In this era, when science and technology are advancing at such a rapid pace, problems often do not arise from the immediate area. Because armament and transportation infrastructure may stretch across the continental United States, other local forces may represent equally substantial threats to national security even if they do not actually relocate to the immediate area. It is possible that the beginnings, arrangements, execution, repercussions, and ramifications of both internal and external threats are inextricably linked to one another. China, Afghanistan, India, and Iran are Pakistan's immediate neighbours. To the south is the Arabian Sea. There is no reason for alarm coming from the direction of the south, and neither China nor Iran is considered to be a potential danger to the country. 19 See details in "How the NotPetya attack is reshaping cyber insurance", 1 December 2021 at https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-the-notpetya-attack-is-reshaping-cyber-insur ance/#:~:text=In%20June%202017%2C%20when%20the,%2410%20billion%20of%20dam age%20globally. 20 Muhammad Tariq, "Post 9/11 Dimensions of Pak-Afghan Relations", Rashhat-e-Qalam 2, no. If Pakistan is successful in establishing stable relations with its neighbours, the nation may be able to alleviate a significant portion of its long-standing security concerns. 21

Poland
Poland has emerged as a crucial member of the alliance's eastern flank in recent years. In the past, some members of NATO saw Poland as a "Russophobe". It is now the most stable between the West and Ukraine. 22 Many shipments of Western armaments to the Ukrainian military go via Poland on their way to Ukraine. On the other hand, Moscow considered these convoys to be "legitimate military targets" while they were operating in Ukraine, which made Poland and Polish supplies fair game. Rafal Trzaskowski, the mayor of Warsaw and a significant political figure said that his country was not afraid despite the fact that Russia had launched a missile strike so close to the Polish border and that NATO had discussed the possibility of Russia organising chemical attacks. 23 Non-state threats, such as those offered by transnational organised crime, are an additional phenomenon that is increasing and posing a danger to Poland's national interests; nevertheless, these risks are not the result of terrorist activity. Laundering money and engaging in corrupt practices are essential components of this kind of criminal activity, which is also related to the trafficking of illicit drugs, firearms, hazardous materials, and people. The potential risk is created when there is a large-scale movement of persons or things over the border that has the potential to compromise Poland's national security. Despite the fact that the chance of a mass migration of this kind occurring at this time is minimal, Poland's strategic location on the European continent intensifies the current dangers in this region. At this time, Poland has a responsibility to take into account the economic and social impact of migration flows and to take steps to prevent the adverse effects of these movements. public services in recent years. 24 It is possible that Polish territory might serve as a viable logistical base for planning and executing attacks against persons, organisations, and enterprises located in neighbouring countries due to its central location and ease of access. This may include the possibility that Poland will serve as a hub (rather than only a corridor) for the trafficking of illegal drugs or persons, rather than merely a transit corridor. As a direct result of the growing operation of transnational criminal organisations in Poland during the last several years, a variety of social pathologies have surfaced in the country. The threat posed to Poland is one that cannot be ignored. 25

Conclusion
Pakistan and Poland, situated on the opposite ends of the Eurasian continent, encounter comparable geopolitical predicaments as a result of their geographic positioning. Both countries are located in the regions that are marked by unstable conditions, refugee crisis, neighbouring countries with hegemonic designs, and security apprehensions.
The issue of unstable neighbourhoods poses a great challenge for both Pakistan and Poland. Pakistan is geographically adjacent to Afghanistan and Iran, both of which have experienced prolonged periods of political and social unrest. The existence of radical factions within these countries presents a tangible peril to the security of Pakistan. In a comparable vein, the political and military conflicts that have transpired in recent years have affected Poland's neighbouring countries to the east, namely Ukraine and Belarus. The act of annexing Crimea by Russia has resulted in increased instability in the region, prompting Poland to express its dissent towards Russian aggression. In the light of these challenges, both the countries have placed emphasis on enhancing their military capabilities and forging alliances with other nations to reinforce their security.
The refugee crisis is a shared challenge that is being confronted by both Pakistan and Poland. For decades, Pakistan has provided refuge to millions of individuals fleeing Afghanistan, and the recent takeover by the Taliban has only served to compound the existing challenges. The influx of refugees has resulted in acute pressure on Pakistan's resources, thereby giving rise to social and economic predicaments. Poland is currently facing an influx of refugees originating from the Middle East and Africa, who are seeking asylum in Europe due to ongoing conflicts in their home countries. The increase in the number of refugees has contributed to the escalation of political tensions in Poland, prompting the government to adopt a stringent stance on immigration. It is imperative for both nations to adopt a more sophisticated strategy towards the refugee crisis and collaborate with the global community to tackle the underlying factors that lead to involuntary displacement.
The presence of neighbouring countries with dominant aspirations represents a noteworthy peril to the security of Pakistan and Poland. India, situated to the east of Pakistan, is an emerging regional hegemon possessing nuclear armaments. The two nations have a longstanding history of hostility and have engaged in multiple armed conflicts over the contested region of Kashmir. Likewise, the Eastern European nation of Poland shares a border with the global superpower of Russia, which has a longstanding tradition of exerting its dominance in the region. The annexation of Crimea has elicited apprehension regarding Russia's motives in the area, and Poland has expressed its dissent towards Russian belligerence. It is imperative for both nations to implement a diplomatic strategy in handling their interactions with their influential neighbouring countries. They should strive to establish productive collaborations that foster regional stability and tranquilly.
Pakistan and Poland face similar security challenges. Pakistan has been engaged in a prolonged battle against terrorism, experiencing a multitude of terrorist incidents. Although there has been some improvement in recent years, the risk of terrorism continues to be significant. Likewise, Poland has been contending with an escalation in far-right radicalism, which jeopardise social unity and steadiness. It is imperative for both the countries to implement a holistic security strategy that tackles the underlying factors contributing to these issues and fosters equitable communities that uphold legal principles and human rights.
To conclude, Pakistan and Poland encounter comparable geopolitical predicaments owing to their respective geographical positions. Both the countries are confronted with the challenge of managing volatile regions, addressing refugee crisis, contending with neighbouring states that seek to exert influence, and ensuring security. In order to tackle these obstacles, it is imperative for both to implement a holistic strategy that places emphasis on diplomacy, collaboration, and adherence to legal principles. The promotion of stability and peace, as well as the support for such endeavours, are also within the purview of the international community.